Bitcoin Is Weak Despite ETF Hopes, BTC Dropping to $26k?

Bitcoin (BTC) Rejects Bears Surging 6% Amid Rising Inflation
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The prices of Bitcoin (BTC) remains within a “boring” and “tight” trade range, looking at the formation in the daily chart. Even though prices are trending above the $29k level and inside the July 24 bear range, the failure of bulls to close above $30k and preferably $31.8k is bearish for the coin. 

Prices might be moving sideways, looking at the price chart, but clearer entries might form if prices edge below $29k and even $28.3k in the days ahead. 

Meanwhile, buyers might find reprieve if there is a welcomed leg up above the recent consolidation. A dash above $30.3k, reversing the anchor bear bar of July 24, might trigger demand, changing sentiment in the medium term.

ETF Momentum Picking Steam

The tepid nature of Bitcoin price action is despite interesting developments across the regulatory world. This week, Bloomberg analysts raised the odds of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a Bitcoin Exchange Traded-Fund (ETF) to 65%. 

The eventual approval of a Bitcoin ETF by the strict regulator could be a game changer for the coin and the crypto. With institutional exposure expected, liquidity will likely increase. This is a net positive for bulls, who expect even more price gains in the coming months ahead of halving. 

Direxion, the issuer of daily leveraged and inverse ETFs, also applied for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs with the SEC. The issuer cites its quest to capitalize on gains and plans to issue the two derivatives on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis

BTC price on August 4 | Source: BTC/USDT on Binance, TradingView

Looking at the daily chart, BTC remains in a bearish formation, trading below a range. The path of least resistance is southwards, with the July 24 bar defining the current preview. 

Since bears are in control and bulls have failed to reverse the July 24 losses, every high below $30.3k may offer entries for aggressive sellers. In that case, BTC might slump from an effort-versus-result preview if there is a dip below $28.9k with rising volumes. Any breakout might see BTC drop to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the mid-June to mid-July trade range at around $26.3k.

This bearish outlook will change only once there is a conclusive close above $30.3k at the back of rising volumes.

Technical charts courtesy of Trading View.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed do not constitute investment advice. If you wish to make a purchase or investment we recommend that you always conduct your research.

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