TL;DR:
- Bitcoin has retreated 32% from its all-time high of $126,000, showing greater resilience than in previous cycles.
- Technical analysts like CryptoCon foresee a convergence point in September that could drive the price down to $35,000.
- The definitive floor for the current cycle is estimated between $28,000 and $17,000 for the final quarter of 2026.
Everything seems to indicate that in 2026, the Bitcoin bear market is progressing more moderately compared to the collapses of 2014 and 2018. Although the pioneer cryptocurrency has lost 32% since its peak of $126,000 in October 2025, this figure is lower than the 43% or 66% losses recorded in past cycles.
In this regard, experts warn that this relative stability could be a deception before a severe final adjustment. Projections based on the Halving Cycle Theory reveal that a major capitulation is expected, which would align this cycle with historical precedents just before bottoming out.
Bitcoin’s price continues to hover around $88,000, but recent volatility has caused massive liquidations exceeding $350 million. Therefore, traders must keep a close eye on key support levels as market sentiment begins to show signs of exhaustion.
On-chain Signals and Capitulation Projections for Year-End
On-chain data reveals an increase in the percentage of BTC held at a loss, a metric that typically marks the beginning of the darkest phases of bear markets. However, long-term holders have returned to an accumulation phase, suggesting a solid base of institutional capital.
On the other hand, the Binance Reserve Cost metric sits at $62,000, a level that has yet to be tested since the approval of the ETFs. Many analysts believe this price will act as the ultimate support if the correction intensifies in the coming months.
In summary, the path toward the end of 2026 appears to be marked by a technical convergence that will define the future of the trend. If the pattern repeats, the market could witness prices below $30,000 before a sustainable recovery heading into 2027.
