TL;DR
- Bitcoin recovered toward $82,500 after Trump ruled out striking Iran before November 3, but remained roughly 4% lower than a week earlier.
- Crypto liquidations reached $1.09 billion, including $931 million in longs, while Bitcoin futures open interest fell 1.9% to $27.1 billion amid weak leverage demand.
- Brent retreated toward $103, but Thursday’s crypto ETF outflows and uneven altcoin performance showed the rebound had yet to fully reverse broader market weakness.
Bitcoin stabilized near $82,500 on Friday after President Donald Trump said the United States would not strike Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, following Thursday’s drop toward $80,300. The statement coincided with a rebound across risk assets, although BTC remained roughly 4% below its level a week earlier. CoinMarketCap later displayed Bitcoin around $83,167, a separate live snapshot rather than the earlier recovery quote. The reprieve eased immediate geopolitical anxiety without reversing the week’s losses or establishing a durable breakout. Brent crude also retreated around 1% to roughly $103 a barrel after several sessions of heightened market volatility.
Leverage Unwinds as Bitcoin Tests a Fragile Recovery
Thursday’s retreat brought Bitcoin close to its 50-day moving average, which FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich described as a medium-term reference where buying interest returned. In derivatives, 24-hour liquidations reached $1.09 billion, with longs accounting for $931 million, approximately 85% of the total. Ether positions contributed $345 million, compared with Bitcoin’s $266 million. The scale of forced long closures highlights how leverage magnified the latest decline even as the market recovered some ground. The episode followed oil-driven crypto selling and illustrates why calmer geopolitical headlines cannot immediately erase positioning stress or instantly rebuild market confidence.
Fresh leverage was not powering the rebound. Bitcoin futures open interest declined 1.9% over 24 hours to $27.1 billion, with little change since Thursday’s steep selloff. Funding remained positive near 5% annualized, while the aggregate long-to-short account ratio stood at 1.85, representing nearly 65% long. This positioning leaves bearish traders vulnerable to squeezes, but a sustained rally still requires stronger buying conviction. The broader market was uneven: ether remained roughly 9% lower on the week, while Solana lost nearly 4% over 24 hours. Recent altcoin weakness continued to frame the recovery heading into the weekend.
Equity futures reflected some relief, with Nasdaq 100 contracts advancing 0.83% and S&P 500 futures adding 0.44%, while Brent eased below $103 after reaching a two-week high. U.S.-listed Bitcoin and ether ETFs registered Thursday outflows despite the improvement in spot sentiment. The move arrived against a backdrop of weaker Bitcoin ETF flows. Market confirmation now rests on whether spot demand absorbs selling and the rebound survives beyond the immediate geopolitical catalyst. Bitcoin’s 50-week exponential moving average near $78,000 remains a broader support reference for cautious traders, not a guaranteed floor.
