Cryptocurrency investment firm QCP Capital has shared a rather sobering forecast for both Bitcoin and equities in their market outlook for Q4 2023. According to their report, the fate of Bitcoin’s price hinges on the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
This came after the cryptocurrency world was sent into a frenzy on Monday as a tweet by a popular news outlet suggested that a Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) had been approved. This misinformation triggered a more than $2,000 surge in the price of Bitcoin, shedding light on just how significant the approval of a Bitcoin ETF would be.
However, Singapore-based QCP Capital is pessimistic about this actually happening this year, leaving Bitcoin (BTC) vulnerable to broader economic conditions.
“Unfortunately, we do not expect the actual SEC approval for any application or conversion to take place this year, which means the larger BTC trend below 25k or beyond 32k is beholden to macro winds for the rest of Q4,” the company maintained in its latest report.
QCP Capital Offers Bearish Outlook on Bitcoin and Equities
QCP Capital doesn’t stop at Bitcoin; they also express a bearish view on equities for Q4 2023. They believe the general optimism surrounding a year-end equities rally is, in fact, a contrarian indicator.
With rising real interest rates in the U.S. and ongoing geopolitical tensions worldwide, particularly in Ukraine and Palestine, the perfect storm of uncertainty is brewing. This volatile mix could potentially lead to significant downturns in both equities and bonds, risking a “major risk-parity catastrophe.”
Notably, QCP Capital’s report issues a clear warning to investors, advising them to brace for a turbulent Q4. This advice and dismissal of hopes for ETF approval set their forecast apart from more optimistic perspectives.
For example, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink sees Bitcoin on a “flight to quality” and as an “international asset,” while crypto analyst Jason Pizzino predicts a potential Bitcoin rally towards a new all-time high in 2023-2024.
Additionally, the report points out an event that could send ripples across the crypto market. QCP Capital directs the attention of long-term traders toward Tesla’s upcoming earnings announcement, particularly focusing on whether Tesla has sold its remaining 25 percent of its Bitcoin holdings. Any such move by Tesla could significantly impact the cryptocurrency market.
Whether this prediction proves true or not, it adds intrigue to what lies ahead in the crypto market, especially for Bitcoin, as it approaches its fourth halving in early 2024.