TL;DR
- Arthur Hayes predicts that crypto-native perpetual futures will displace traditional stock exchanges.
- Stock liquidity and price discovery will shift to 24/7 perpetual markets on crypto platforms.
- Hayes points to traditional platforms like CBOE and SGX adapting, a moment he calls “adapt or die” for TradFi.
Crypto-style perpetual futures are destined to “kill” traditional stock exchanges—that was the bold prediction from BitMEX co-founder and influential crypto figure, Arthur Hayes. The entrepreneur argues that equity price discovery will migrate to 24/7 perpetual futures markets operated on crypto platforms, marking an “adapt or die” moment for Traditional Finance (TradFi).
Hayes’s prediction comes just as traditional platforms like CBOE and SGX are preparing to roll out their own perpetual products by the end of 2025. The entrepreneur added that if established exchanges do not adopt crypto’s perpetual contract model and its socialized loss margin systems, they will lose liquidity and relevance to crypto markets and DEXs, which are more agile and efficient.
Why Crypto Perpetual Futures vs Traditional Exchanges Will Win
In his latest essay, Hayes reaffirms that BitMEX’s invention of the perpetual swap (a futures-like product with no expiry) revolutionized crypto trading. This model solved two key demands of retail traders: access to high leverage and deep liquidity, without the legal risk of owing more than their initial margin if a trade goes wrong, thanks to socialized loss systems and insurance funds.
This design is now moving into equities. Hayes highlighted that decentralized platforms like Hyperliquid have already seen launches of perpetual futures on indices such as the Nasdaq 100, with daily volumes exceeding $100 million. In his view, equity perpetual futures will become “the hottest product of 2026,” with both centralized and decentralized exchanges competing to list them.
Hayes contends that traditional clearinghouses are constrained by undercapitalized guarantee funds, strict rules around retail leverage, and legacy operating hours that cannot keep up with a 24/7 information cycle. The perpetual swap model reverses this, allowing traders to leverage with less collateral—a key advantage in an industry that has experienced multiple failures and hacks.
In summary, for Hayes, the outcome of the Crypto Perpetual Futures vs Traditional Exchanges confrontation is clear: by the end of this decade, the largest derivatives on key U.S. benchmarks (such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100) will be perpetual futures traded on crypto exchanges, not the futures listed on traditional platforms like the CME.
