TL;DR:
- Doctor Profit expects a prolonged bear market for Bitcoin and sees a potential bottom in September to October 2026 this cycle.
- He moved remaining USDT to banking, holds no liquid crypto, and runs a BTC short at $115,000 to $125,000.
- BTC traded near $89,259; he targets a $107,000 bounce before a February to March down leg. CryptoQuant points to $100,000 resistance and $56,000 support; losing the 50-week SMA implies ~$40,000.
Bitcoin spent Christmas trading largely flat amid cautious sentiment and reduced institutional participation, but one analyst says the stress test may be ahead.
In the last three months I have moved all the remaining USDT back into the bank system and bought Gold & Silver! Im absolutely not liquid at all as of now in crypto assets as the only remaining USDT assets are in the big short from 115-125k that is still open.
I see no reason atā¦
— Doctor Profit šØš (@DrProfitCrypto) December 25, 2025
Doctor Profit argued the bear phase could run for months and may not bottom until September or October 2026. He said he moved all remaining USDT back into the banking system and now holds no liquid crypto. His disclosed positioning includes a BTC short initiated between $115,000 and $125,000 and a medium BTC holding bought around $85,000. He is treating any bounce as tactical, not a regime change.
Signals desks are watching as 2026 risk gets priced
Bitcoin was trading near $89,259 after a 2% daily gain, yet it remained below key resistance levels. CryptoQuant cited $100,000 as a major short-term ceiling, driven by clustered cost bases among recent whale investors and Binance users. New whales, holding BTC for under 155 days, have an average cost basis around $100,500, making the area a break-even zone where profit-taking or fresh accumulation can tilt the tape.
Binance spot users average roughly $56,000, while long-term whales over 155 days sit near $40,000. Those cost bases often map where conviction may flip into supply or support.
Every time Bitcoin $BTC has lost the 50-week SMA, itās dropped an average of 60%.
Today, that points to around $40,000. https://t.co/rNcFLH0a5P pic.twitter.com/zXAX4aemw1
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) December 24, 2025
A second bearish signal comes from Bitcoinās relationship with the 50-week simple moving average. Analyst Ali Martinez noted that in prior cycles, losing that level typically preceded an average decline of about 54%. Applied to current prices, the math implies a potential move toward $40,000. He did not call for an immediate flush, but warned that failure to reclaim the 50-week SMA could open the door to extended downside pressure. It is less about one session and more about weak weekly closes. For risk managers, the 50-week line is a governance checkpoint for exposure limits.
Doctor Profitās roadmap leaves room for volatility without shifting the broader thesis. He said he plans to ride a short-term upswing toward $107,000, then expects the next downward leg in February or March. That stance pairs a tactical target with a longer timeline that stretches into late 2026, and it explains why he moved USDT back into banking and keeps no liquid crypto despite holding a medium BTC position. With $100,000 framed as resistance and $56,000 as a support base, the marketās next decision point is whether buyers can absorb supply at key cost levels.
