TL;DR (70 words total)
- ETH has chopped between $2,600 and $3,350 for two months and now trades near $3,140, with $3,350 the decision level.
- Support sits just above $2,630, while the daily 200 EMA near $3,340 and 200 MA around $3,630 cap upside until reclaimed.
- Open interest: 5.07 million; spot 40% below $4,950; $3,150 to $3,250 and $3,000 to $3,050 clusters.
Ethereum has spent roughly two months chopping sideways, boxed between about $2,600 and $3,350, and it is now currently hovering near $3,140 after a 1% daily gain and a slight weekly decline. The market is treating $3,350 as the line that decides whether this range becomes a launchpad or a ceiling. With support just above $2,630, desks are waiting for a decisive break to clarify direction. Even the moving averages reinforce the stalemate: the daily 200 EMA is near $3,340 and the daily 200 MA is around $3,630.
$ETH open interest is now back above October 10th crash level.
Meanwhile, prices are still down almost 40%.
No matter what happens, people never learn in crypto. pic.twitter.com/PfC6PVOPrD
— K A Y (@kay_drake_) January 12, 2026
Breakout zone in focus
Range trading has dominated since late 2025, and analyst Daan Crypto Trades captured the mood by saying he is still patiently waiting for either boundary to be broken. Until ETH can close above the daily 200 EMA near $3,340 and the daily 200 MA around $3,630, the broader trend stays uncertain. Repeated attempts to rally have faded under resistance near $3,350, while buyers have defended the lower band just above $2,630 across spot venues. That pattern keeps positioning tactical: risk is managed to levels, not stories, because confirmation has not arrived.
So far, $ETH is holding nicely above a crucial resistance zone.
That means that the likelihood towards new monthly highs has significantly increased.
Great stuff. pic.twitter.com/KnIPCNadVu
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) January 11, 2026
Michaël van de Poppe offered a view, arguing ETH is holding above a resistance zone that could now act as support, and he said the likelihood of new monthly highs has “significantly increased.” This is a decision zone where structure matters more than headlines, because the next move can be forced by liquidity. ETH is following an upward trendline from its December lows, and the next upside zone sits close to $3,800. Ted highlighted large short liquidations from $3,150 to $3,250 and a liquidity cluster around $3,000 to $3,050.
Futures are active: ETH open interest has recovered from the October crash to 5.07 million contracts, matching the peak before the drop even as spot sits almost 40% below its prior high near $4,950 for now. Rising open interest with flat price signals heavier positioning and increases downside risk if support fails. Van de Poppe noted ETH has outperformed BTC since April 2025, calling it “an Ethereum market” similar to 2019. With ETH holding above $3,000 in a Wyckoff structure, a break above $4,000 could open $5,000 to $7,000.
