Crypto glossary
Lindy effect
The Lindy effect is the idea that the longer a non-perishable thing, such as a technology or idea, has survived, the longer it is likely to keep surviving.
The concept is named after Lindy's, a New York delicatessen where comedians were said to discuss how long shows would last, and was popularised by the writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2012 book Antifragile. It applies to things that do not age biologically, such as books, technologies and institutions: each year of survival is evidence of robustness, so a technology that has lasted 15 years is, on this view, likely to last many more.
Bitcoin supporters cite the Lindy effect often. Since its launch in 2009 the network has kept running despite bans, exchange collapses, forks, deep bear markets and repeated declarations of its death, which they argue makes it more likely to endure than newer tokens. The argument also supports the store of value and digital gold narratives.
The Lindy effect is a probabilistic heuristic, not a law. It says nothing about price, and survival can end abruptly from new threats such as technological breakthroughs or regulation. Applied to young tokens, it mainly suggests scepticism, since most have not survived long enough to earn the benefit.
Example
Asked why she prefers bitcoin to a new layer 1, an investor cites the Lindy effect: bitcoin has survived more than 15 years of attacks and crashes, while the new chain has existed for 18 months.