TL;DR
- Bitcoin spot demand has fallen toward -170,000 BTC after a short recovery, showing weaker buyer activity across the market.
- Miners remain resilient as the Puell Multiple reaches its highest cycle bottom on record, suggesting reduced financial pressure.
- Analysts indicate derivatives activity is supporting Bitcoin’s price more than direct spot purchases, creating a rare divergence between market demand and network strength.
Bitcoin demand has weakened again as on-chain data shows spot buyers retreating while miners continue operating without the stress seen in previous cycles. CryptoQuant’s latest metrics reveal a rare divergence where market demand and miner resilience are moving in opposite directions.
The shift suggests Bitcoin remains in a phase where price movements alone do not fully represent the balance between accumulation pressure and network fundamentals.
Bitcoin Demand Divergence Shows Different Market Forces
CryptoQuant’s 30-day Spot Demand indicator recovered near -80,000 BTC in early July after months of selling pressure, but later declined toward -170,000 BTC. Analyst ScenarioX described the situation as structurally fragile, noting that recent price stability has relied more on derivatives activity than strong spot accumulation.
Short covering has helped limit downside pressure, as traders close bearish positions and reduce exposure. However, this type of movement usually requires fresh spot demand to maintain a sustainable advance. Without stronger buyer participation, the market could face renewed volatility once derivatives positions become balanced.
The situation also involves long-term holders. Bitcoin’s oldest whale group recorded $297.3 million in realized losses on July 14, marking one of the largest loss events for this cohort during the current cycle. While such selling can increase market pressure, it has not yet triggered the type of miner stress observed during previous downturns.
Miner Strength Creates A Different Bitcoin Signal
The Puell Multiple, which compares current miner revenue with its 365-day average, shows a different picture. CryptoQuant contributor thechessONCHAIN reported that the current cycle low reached 0.53, the highest bottom recorded across Bitcoin cycles since 2018. The metric currently remains near 0.84.
Previous cycle lows occurred at 0.28 in December 2018, 0.35 in July 2022 and 0.49 in September 2024. The rising floors suggest miners are facing less severe economic pressure compared with earlier market declines.
The signal does not guarantee a price bottom. Historical data shows Puell readings below 0.65 often preceded gains, but not every occurrence produced immediate recoveries. July 2022 showed that miner indicators can improve before prices fully recover.
