TL;DR:
- Ethereum broke below a daily triangle, with moving averages sloping lower and $1,350 identified as downside support if the pattern is not reclaimed.
- Michaël van de Poppe sees accumulation potential through ETH/BTC, where RSI is below 30 and the ratio sits near 0.02748.
- ETH/USDT RSI remains higher at 36.72, while the SMA100 near $2,151.10 becomes the immediate technical level for confirmation as traders weigh trend risk against longer-term value today.
Ethereum is caught between a bearish chart breakdown and an emerging accumulation argument, leaving traders with a strangely split setup. The token broke below a triangle formation on the daily chart, while the 5-period moving average at $2,135.95 fell under the 137-period moving average at $2,336.81, with both lines sloping lower. After recent Binance liquidation spikes, ETH also failed to hold intraday gains and kept returning toward session lows. For short-term traders, the structure still points lower, with $1,350 identified as the key downside support if the broken triangle is not reclaimed soon.
Bearish Price Action Meets Accumulation Logic
The counterargument comes from Michaël van de Poppe, who sees the same weakness as a potential accumulation zone. His case rests on ETH/BTC, not just ETH in dollar terms. He pointed to a daily RSI below 30 and an ETH/BTC ratio near 0.02748, close to the 0.0260 support area after failing to break above 0.03250. That distinction matters. The accumulation thesis is relative-value driven, suggesting ETH may be oversold against Bitcoin even if its dollar chart remains technically fragile.
The RSI readings add confusion because they refer to different instruments. ETH/USDT showed daily RSI at 36.72, with its signal line at 45.01, while the below-30 reading came from the ETH/BTC ratio. That means ETH is not equally oversold in dollar terms. The SMA100 at $2,151.10 is also only $19 above price and declining, creating an immediate test. Resistance is descending toward Ethereum, so the next decisive signal may come from whether ETH reclaims that moving average or rejects beneath it.
Macro conditions are the final variable the chart cannot fully capture. Van de Poppe’s thesis depends partly on bond yields peaking, especially in Japan, which could make DeFi yields more attractive as the risk-free return gap narrows. He also expects a full Senate vote on the CLARITY Act in June, adding a regulatory catalyst to the setup. The bullish case may be correct but early, because a yield reversal plays out over months, while the triangle breakdown could still accelerate toward $1,350 first. That creates a trading window where bearish confirmation and strategic accumulation can coexist, but only disciplined buyers can separate valuation entry from a live downtrend still carrying technical risk across spot and derivatives markets this week ahead.
