TL,DR:
- Market adjustment: XRP has lost 22% of its value in 2025, trading near $1.43 after moving away from its all-time high of $3.6.
- Technical supports: Analysts identify the zone between $0.7 and $0.8 as the potential cycle floor, based on the Gaussian Channel indicator.
- Resistance levels: The $1.80 level has transformed from a solid 400-day support into a critical resistance for recovery.
The XRP market is at a technical crossroads after its latest correction erased much of the gains achieved in the last bull cycle. Data from analyst Chart Nerd reveals that the asset could face a drop below the psychological barrier of $1 before consolidating a definitive expansion.
Currently, volume and moving average indicators on two-week timeframes suggest that, although there is short-term relief (a 6.91% rally this week), the price still needs to purge positions. Market capitalization reflects this caution, while the RSI seeks to stabilize after breaking the key $1.80 support in January 2026.
The Gaussian Channel and the Bull Trap
XRP’s price history shows that every time the asset leaves a cycle peak and returns to the green zone of the Gaussian Channel, it tends to seek the lower band before a new rally. This pattern was repeated in 2013, 2017, and 2021, reinforcing the theory of a pending correction toward $0.70.
However, there is the possibility of a rally toward the 20 and 50-period exponential moving averages (EMA), located between $1.8 and $2. Nevertheless, experts warn that this movement could be a “dead cat bounce,” a market trap that precedes a deeper fall if the $2.4 level is not recovered with strength.
In summary, the outlook for XRP depends on its ability to transform the $1.80 resistance back into support. Otherwise, investors should prepare for an accumulation phase at lower levels before witnessing the next sustained bull market.
