TL;DR
- Bloomberg Intelligence says Coinbase’s USDC-linked revenue, 19% of 2025 revenue, could grow 2 to 7 times; Coinbase made $1.35B in 2025.
- Stablecoin transactions hit $33T in 2025, with USDC at $18.3T; Coinbase benefits because USDC interest is higher-margin than trading fees.
- GENIUS bars issuer yield, and CLARITY may extend bans to exchange rewards; Coinbase withdrew support, while Armstrong says a ban could boost profits. Moreno targets April.
Coinbase’s USDC-linked business is being reframed from a side line into a strategic revenue engine as payments adoption accelerates. USDC could become Coinbase’s highest-leverage growth driver if stablecoin usage keeps scaling beyond trading. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates Coinbase’s stablecoin revenue, tied to its USDC revenue share with Circle, could grow two to seven times, after representing 19% of total revenue in 2025. Coinbase reported about $1.35 billion in stablecoin revenue in 2025, up from $911 million in 2024, including $364 million in Q4. That came despite a $667 million Q4 loss, as USDC interest income rose.
Policy and payments set the ceiling for USDC economics
Stablecoins are already mainstream in usage terms, and that scale is what makes the revenue math credible. Payments volume is turning USDC into a high-throughput financial rail rather than a trading convenience. Total stablecoin transaction volume hit a record $33 trillion in 2025, with USDC accounting for about $18.3 trillion, ahead of USDt by transaction value even though USDt still leads by market cap. For Coinbase, that trend matters because interest income on USDC balances has become a higher-margin line than volatile trading fees. If payment flows keep compounding, distribution share becomes the profit lever.
Policy is the swing factor, because Washington is debating who can pass yield to end users. Stablecoin rewards are becoming a legislative battleground that can reprice Coinbase’s margins overnight. The GENIUS Act, signed by President Donald Trump in July 2025, created a federal regime for payment stablecoins and bars issuers from paying interest or yield to holders. Banks support that stance, arguing yield-bearing tokens could siphon deposits. In CLARITY Act talks, banks want to close a loophole that lets exchanges pass reserve interest as “rewards,” and draft Senate language could block such programs at all.
Coinbase’s economics hinge on its partnership with Circle, which splits interest income from USDC reserves based on distribution. The next growth leg depends on how Congress defines “yield” and who gets it. In January, Coinbase withdrew support for the CLARITY Act after objecting to provisions that would restrict stablecoin rewards. Brian Armstrong said a rewards ban could make the stablecoin line more profitable by letting Coinbase keep the Circle revenue share, even if users lose out. The bill is moving through the Senate, and Senator Bernie Moreno said passage could come as soon as April.
