TLDR:
- The formation of a bear pennant on the daily chart suggests a potential 20% correction toward the $56,000 zone.
- The whale inflow ratio to exchanges has reached a record high of 0.619, heightening selling pressure.
- Matrixport’s sentiment index signals a potential bottom nearby, offering a short-term counter-signal.
By mid-February, the crypto market was in a phase of high technical tension, with the pioneer cryptocurrency facing a downside risk due to a bearish pattern after consolidating within a structure known as a negative pennant. According to analysts, this pattern emerges after a sharp sell-off and typically resolves with a downward move that could drag the price toward $56,000 if the 20-day moving average resistance is not reclaimed soon.
It appears the bullish momentum has stalled while Bitcoin compresses within a symmetrical triangle of uncertain resolution. Conversely, a breakout above the upper trendline at $72,700 would invalidate this corrective scenario, handing control back to buyers and clearing the path toward new all-time highs.
Institutional pressure on exchanges and capitulation signals
Accompanying the chart’s weakness, data from CryptoQuant reveals that since the start of February, the whale inflow ratio to exchanges has risen drastically. This indicator, which compares the ten largest transactions to total flow, suggests that large holders are moving their funds to platforms like Binance with a clear intent to take profits or hedge positions.
However, the outlook is not entirely dramatic for investors, as Matrixport’s Greed & Fear Index has triggered a historical signal of seller exhaustion. This phenomenon occurs when the 21-day moving average drops below zero and begins to rebound—an event that frequently coincides with the formation of durable market bottoms.
In summary, although the risk of an additional 20% drop is latent due to the current technical structure, sentiment indicators suggest that the final capitulation could be near. The key for the coming days will be to monitor whether the pennant support can withstand the pressure from whales or if we will witness one last “flush” before a sustained recovery toward the end of the quarter.
