TL;DR:
- XRP’s SOPR indicator has fallen below 1.00, confirming that most transactions are being executed at a loss.
- The drop from a peak of 1.16 in July 2025 to the current 0.96 reflects a massive investor capitulation.
- Analysts warn that this behavior mimics the stagnation phase suffered between late 2021 and mid-2022.
A troubling XRP on-chain pattern has been revealed, placing the digital asset market at a critical juncture. Recent data from Glassnode shows that XRP’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has descended below the 1.00 threshold for the first time in years.
This means that a majority of holders are moving their funds at a lower price than they originally purchased. Consequently, the ecosystem has entered a “net loss realization” phase—a capitulation event not seen with this intensity since the 2022 bearish cycle.
As a direct result, panic sentiment has returned to the community, reflected in a price drop from $3 in 2025 to levels below $1.50. Similarly, the breach of the aggregate holder cost basis acted as a psychological trigger, accelerating investor exits.
Stagnation Risks and Parallels with the 2022 Cycle
The current situation bears a striking resemblance to the period from September 2021 to May 2022. Back then, the XRP on-chain pattern remained trapped in a tedious sideways range for months before achieving a solid base formation for any recovery attempt.
Unless the SOPR ratio quickly reclaims the 1.00 level, XRP is likely to remain in a sub-cost zone that forces out “weak hands.” Therefore, analysts suggest that this purging process is necessary to reset the market, even if it implies a prolonged lack of bullish volatility.
In summary, capitulation is no longer just a market theory; it is a measurable reality visible directly on the blockchain. The coming months will be decisive in determining whether this XRP on-chain pattern results in healthy accumulation or a deeper, more lasting downtrend.
