TL;DR
- Market Decline: BTC has fallen to around $69,300, marking a 21% weekly drop and its first break below $70K since November 2024.
- Bearish Forecasts: Analysts, including Ali Martinez, Hardy, and PlanB, warn of potential declines toward $57,600, $47,824, or even $30,000, with poll data showing traders expect a move into the $50K to $60K range.
- Investor Behavior: Rising BTC balances on exchanges suggest traders are preparing to sell, though the RSI near 19 signals oversold conditions that could support a possible rebound.
BTC’s recent downturn has intensified market anxiety, with the asset sliding to levels unseen since late 2024 and analysts warning that deeper losses may be imminent. After falling below $70,000 for the first time in over a year, BTC now trades at around $70,000 again, marking a sharp 21% weekly decline that has rattled bullish sentiment across the sector.
Since 2015, every time Bitcoin $BTC has lost the 100-week SMA, it has failed to reclaim it quickly and instead continued toward the 200-week SMA. https://t.co/ONGc3IV0QN pic.twitter.com/QXbns7q73r
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) February 5, 2026
Analysts Warn of Further Weakness as BTC Tests Key Technical Levels
Several market observers argue that the latest correction may only be the beginning. Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted that since 2015, BTC has historically failed to reclaim the 100‑week simple moving average once it breaks below it, often drifting toward the 200‑week SMA. His chart suggests a potential slide to $57,600, with earlier warnings pointing to support at $60,176 and $47,824 after the drop under $77,086.
Some traders foresee an even more dramatic downturn. The analyst known as Hardy projected a prolonged decline that could push BTC toward a $30,000 bottom in the coming months. PlanB also outlined multiple paths, ranging from a collapse to $25,000 to a retreat into the $50,000 to $60,000 zone. In a poll shared on X, nearly half of respondents viewed the $50K to $60K range as the most likely destination, while only 15% anticipated a plunge to $25K. At the time of writing, BTC trades at around $70K, dropping nearly 7%.
Exchange Inflows Rise as Investors Prepare for Possible Sell‑Off
On‑chain data appears to support the bearish narrative. CryptoQuant reported a steady increase in Bitcoin held on exchanges in recent weeks, a trend typically associated with investors preparing to sell. The shift from self‑custody to centralized platforms often signals caution, suggesting that many traders expect additional volatility ahead.
Despite the prevailing pessimism, some metrics hint at a potential rebound. The Relative Strength Index, which gauges the speed and magnitude of price movements, currently sits near 19. Readings below 30 indicate oversold conditions, implying that BTC may be nearing a point where buyers could re‑enter the market. While not a guarantee of recovery, the indicator provides a counterbalance to the overwhelmingly bearish sentiment.
