TL;DR:
- XRP’s price is struggling to stay above the critical $1.48 support level following a weekly decline of over 20%.
- Capitulation from new buyers and selling pressure from whales threaten a further pullback.
- Declining stablecoin reserves on exchanges are weakening the buying power necessary for a recovery.
The XRP downside risks observed in recent hours have sounded alarms across the cryptocurrency market. These risks bear a striking resemblance to the bearish phase experienced in 2022. At the time of writing, the asset was trading at $1.60, sitting dangerously close to its aggregated realized price.
This metric, positioned at $1.48, represents the average purchase cost for all holders in circulation. By falling below this level, recent investors would enter into unrealized losses—a situation technically known as being “underwater.”
Generally, this scenario triggers panic selling that accelerates market corrections. If XRP fails to defend this support, analysts warn of a potential massive capitulation that could emulate the 50% crash observed in previous cycles.
Whale Pressure and Lack of Market Liquidity
In addition to negative retail sentiment, data from CryptoQuant reveals that XRP whales have maintained a negative net flow over the last 90 days. This indicates that large wallets are distributing their assets rather than accumulating, thereby increasing the available supply.
On the other hand, global liquidity has been impacted by a massive outflow of stablecoins from exchanges. In the final quarter of 2025, net outflows of $9.6 billion were recorded—a trend that, although it moderated in January, continues to limit buying pressure.
In summary, despite the dire scenario, the two-week RSI near 38 suggests that XRP could find a temporary floor. However, a break below the 100-week exponential moving average at $1.43 would invalidate any recovery attempts heading into the second quarter of 2026.
