TL;DR:
- Tony Severino uses the ISM PMI index to signal that the macro cycle has already peaked.
- Bitcoin shows signs of technical weakness by losing key supports on monthly timeframes.
- The expert projects a possible correction toward $45,000 before any potential reversal.
Recent statements by Tony Severino have caused uncertainty in the digital asset market. Severino asserts that the Bitcoin bullish cycle is over, an analysis that challenges the optimistic projections prevailing among many investors and promoters within the crypto ecosystem.
Severino’s stance is grounded in traditional macroeconomic indicators, most notably the U.S. ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). These data points reflect lower highs and lower lows in the manufacturing sector, which generally suggests that the cyclical momentum for risk assets has already been exhausted.
Consequently, the analyst warns that ignoring these macro signals is akin to betting on a “fairy tale.” While gold and silver maintain consistent inflows, Bitcoin is showing signs of fatigue near $80,000, lagging behind precious metals.
Technical Analysis and Bearish Targets for 2026
Monthly candlestick charts paint a very complex picture, as the asset has broken through essential moving averages. The analyst points out that, in previous years, these types of breakdowns have preceded average drawdowns of 50%. This reinforces the idea that the Bitcoin bullish cycle is over.
Due to this historical behavior, the expert has established a downside target toward the $45,000 zone. This correction would represent a healthy yet severe adjustment, necessary to purge excess speculation before attempting a new sustainable upward trend.
In summary, it is crucial to monitor the PMI level of 46; a drop below this point would confirm a deeper intermediate downtrend. Investors must act with caution, as an environment of stagflation or a global financial crisis could invalidate any narrative of immediate recovery for the king of cryptocurrencies.
