TL;DR
- ETH fell over 10% in three days, broke $2,800 since Dec. 3, 2025, and traded near $2,700 as desks tightened risk.
- A descending triangle break sets $2,500 as next checkpoint at the 200-week SMA, with a target near $2,150 and RSI at 34.
- A symmetrical triangle points to $2,100 also as onchain NUPL shifts into āfearā and the 111-day MA drops below the 200-day MA.
Ethereum lost the $2,800 handle after sliding more than 10% over three days, a break that traders treat as a regime shift. The practical takeaway is that $2,800 flipping to resistance forces desks to tighten risk limits and focus on downside scenarios. ETH was changing hands near $2,700, a ādo or dieā zone for bulls, according to Metacryptox, who warned that failing to hold could open a move toward the $2,500 mid-range. The breach was notable because ETH had not traded below $2,800 since Dec. 3, 2025, turning what was support into a new overhead supply line for any bounce attempts. With charts and onchain data leaning bearish, the market is bracing for continuation.
š Ethereum Analysis: The $2,760 Line of Fire
Looking closely at the recent price action, Ethereum is currently battling at a decisive frontier. This isn't just another dip; it's a test of the structural trend.
1. The Reality of the Chart
Support Breach Risk: The chart clearlyā¦ pic.twitter.com/ZNOtAFyC8u— metacryptox (@metacryptox01) January 30, 2026
ETH Technical and onchain signals converge on $2,100 to $2,150
Chart structure points to $2,500 as the next decision level, and it carries extra weight because it aligns with the 200-week simple moving average. This matters because a level that is both support and an average tends to attract liquidity and reactions. The $2,800 area also matched the horizontal line of a descending triangle, and the break on Thursday activated the downside projection. The measured target from that pattern sits near $2,150, roughly 20% below current prices, giving traders a clear waypoint for orders. Momentum confirms the pressure: the relative strength index dropped to 34 from 68 in early January, signaling weakening bid strength as the market reprices volatility. If $2,500 fails, positioning can unwind quickly.
A second bearish blueprint comes from a symmetrical triangle, where veteran trader Peter Brandt said the burden of proof is now on bulls after the breakdown. The key signal is convergence, because multiple frameworks now map to the same $2,100 zone, which can become a self-reinforcing magnet. That measured objective implies about 22% downside from current levels. Onchain context also looks heavy: ETHās Net Unrealized Profit/Loss shifted from āanxietyā to the āfearā zone, a move typically associated with bear-market starts. The indicator compares relative unrealized profits versus relative unrealized losses among holders. Separately, the 111-day moving average is below the 200-day moving average, a crossover that historically aligned with deeper drawdowns during the 2018 and 2022 cycles.
