TL;DR
- A trader turned $12 into $104,000 on Polymarket.
- The profit came from 16 selective trades over two months.
- The final bet correctly predicted a Bitcoin price correction.
A user on the prediction market platform Polymarket achieved an extraordinary return. The trader, known as ascetic0x, transformed an initial bet of $12 into more than $104,000. The process involved only 16 trades spread over approximately two months.
The series of bets began on November 12. The trader concentrated his forecasts on the price movements of Bitcoin. The sequence concluded on January 15, 2026, with the final trade. The end result represents an 8,300-fold return on the initial investment.
A Strategy of Selective Bets in a Volatile Market
Unlike other cases that depend on speed and volume, ascetic0x employed a selective approach. The trader placed only 16 bets during the two-month period. This methodology suggests a careful choice of entry points, rather than a high-frequency strategy.
I DID IT!!! Turned $12 into $100,000 (over 8,300x) by going all-in and doubling my bankroll 16 times in a row on short-term BTC moves – while sharing my bets and the reasoning behind them along the way.
This is only possible on @Polymarket !!!
It took a lot of work and real… pic.twitter.com/TJmNOWrmko
— ascetic (@ascetic0x) January 15, 2026
For the final trade, the trader bet on a correction in Bitcoin’s price. In his analysis, he cited similarities with the market crash that occurred in October 2025. He also mentioned rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran as a risk factor. A key point of comparison was the increase in Bitcoin short position liquidations.
In this last bet, the trader risked $51,000 of his accumulated winnings. The correct forecast allowed him to convert that amount into $104,000. The success of this defining move secured the achievement of his stated goal.
The progression of capital did not follow a pure exponential curve
The trader varied the amounts wagered in different trades and benefited from occasionally larger payouts. A strictly mathematical exponential progression would have required fewer trades to reach a similar figure.
Prediction markets like Polymarket allow users to bet on the outcomes of future events. These markets have gained popularity within the crypto ecosystem as instruments for expressing market convictions. The case of ascetic0x shows the potential return, as well as the high inherent risk of this type of platform.
The story illustrates the high-risk, high-reward nature associated with prediction markets. While one trader can multiply their capital thousands of times, the same platform can result in total losses for other participants. The outcome depends on the accuracy of the forecast and the management of the wagered capital.
