TL;DR
- Sovereign Adoption: Sygnum expects US regulatory clarity to encourage at least three major economies to add Bitcoin to national reserves, driven by early‑adopter incentives and rising global interest.
- Political and Market Dynamics: Countries like Brazil, Japan, Germany, Hong Kong, and Poland are exploring reserve strategies, though political friction and institutional pressures may slow progress despite Bitcoin’s tightening supply.
- Tokenization Growth: Sygnum forecasts tokenization entering mainstream finance in 2026, with up to 10% of new bond issuance becoming tokenized and corporate issuers already contributing $1.1 billion to the expanding RWA sector.
U.S. regulatory momentum is emerging as a potential catalyst for a new phase of blockchain adoption in 2026, according to a report by crypto banking group Sygnum. The firm argues that upcoming legislation could unlock sovereign Bitcoin reserves and accelerate the shift by major financial institutions toward tokenized infrastructure, setting the stage for a broader transformation of global markets.
Regulatory Clarity May Trigger Sovereign Bitcoin Accumulation
Sygnum highlights the CLARITY Act and the possible approval of the Bitcoin Act as pivotal developments that could provide the legal certainty governments have been waiting for. The firm expects clearer US rules to strengthen global trust in Bitcoin as a treasury asset, forecasting that at least three G20 or G20‑equivalent economies may publicly add BTC to their sovereign reserves. Sygnum notes that Bitcoin’s economic model rewards early adopters, potentially motivating countries to secure positions before prices rise further.
Early Adopters Likely Among Pragmatic Economies Under Pressure
The report identifies financially pragmatic nations facing currency distress as the most plausible early movers. Brazil, Japan, Germany, Hong Kong, and Poland are cited as examples, each having recently explored or debated national Bitcoin reserve strategies. Legislative hearings, political proposals, and public motions across these jurisdictions reflect growing interest, even if outcomes remain uncertain. Sygnum expects initial allocations to remain modest, around 1% of total reserves, but argues that the signalling effect could be significant.
Bitcoin’s Store‑of‑Value Role Could Expand Despite Friction
Sygnum projects that wider sovereign adoption could help Bitcoin narrow its gap with gold, potentially increasing its share of global store‑of‑value market capitalization from roughly 6% to as much as 25%. This scenario would imply a BTC price between $350,000 and $400,000. However, Redstone co‑founder Marcin Kazmierczak cautions that progress may be slower than expected, citing political friction and the influence of institutions such as the IMF. He adds that recent supply contraction is driven more by ETFs and institutional accumulation than by sovereign treasuries.
Tokenization Expected to Enter Mainstream Financial Operations
Beyond sovereign adoption, Sygnum sees traditional financial institutions moving closer to blockchain‑based operations. The firm predicts that tokenization will reach mainstream status in 2026, with up to 10% of new bond issuance potentially being tokenized at inception. Tokenized bonds may trade at a premium due to faster settlement and improved collateral efficiency. Companies have already tokenized $1.1 billion in corporate bonds, contributing to the expanding real‑world asset tokenization sector.
