TL;DR
- JPMorgan forecasts stablecoin market cap of $500–$600 billion by 2028, below optimistic projections.
- It attributes current growth mainly to crypto trading and derivatives activity, not broad payments adoption.
- The bank sees tokenized bank deposits and CBDCs as competing for future payment flows.
JPMorgan is again pushing back on forecasts that place the stablecoin market near a trillion dollars within a few years. A research team led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou estimates total stablecoin market cap reaches about $500–$600 billion by 2028, well below the most optimistic scenarios.
The bank anchors the view in recent supply growth. JPMorgan says the stablecoin universe added about $100 billion during the year and rose to more than $300 billion, with expansion concentrated in the two largest issuers. Tether’s USDT added roughly $48 billion in supply. Circle’s USDC grew by about $34 billion. Both coins accounted for most of the increase.
JPMorgan says the pattern supports a long-held thesis: stablecoin demand still comes mainly from inside crypto markets. Traders and firms use stablecoins as cash and collateral for crypto trading, including derivatives, DeFi lending and borrowing, and short-term cash parking by crypto-native firms such as venture funds.
Derivatives remain the main engine as tokenized deposits add competition
JPMorgan highlights derivatives activity as a direct driver of stablecoin balances. The analysts say derivatives exchanges increased stablecoin holdings by about $20 billion during the year, supported by a surge in perpetual futures trading.
The report also addresses payments growth but does not translate it into a sharp jump in stablecoin supply. JPMorgan argues that stablecoin use in payments can expand while supply growth stays restrained, because other instruments compete for the same role.
The bank points to tokenized bank deposits and central bank digital currencies as alternatives that can absorb payment demand without enlarging the stablecoin stock at the same pace.
From that base, JPMorgan repeats a core conclusion: stablecoins are likely to grow broadly in line with total crypto market capitalization rather than break away from it. Under that framework, the bank points to $500–$600 billion by 2028 and rejects projections that place the market in the $2–$4 trillion range within the same window.
Other institutions hold more optimistic forecasts. Citi projects stablecoins can reach $1.9 trillion by 2030 in a base case and as much as $4 trillion in a bullish case. Standard Chartered estimates about $2 trillion by 2028. JPMorgan maintains the disagreement and says the trillion-dollar timeline remains too optimistic as long as trading-driven demand dominates and regulated banking alternatives expand.
