TL;DR
- The 2025 Altseason has stalled due to the contraction of the U.S. industrial sector.
- The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 48.2, signaling insufficient macroeconomic liquidity.
- Historically, altcoin seasons only occur when the ISM surpasses the 55 level, in an expansion phase.
Officially, the 2025 altcoin season is postponed for now. What we know as Altseason, that period of growth for assets other than Bitcoin, has been delayed. Economic data released Monday by the United States industrial sector suggests that the macroeconomic liquidity needed to fuel a widespread altcoin rally simply does not exist currently.
Experts speculate that the current sell-off is due to a mix of factors, including a normal price reversion after months of gains, record gold prices, a tense stock market, and concerns about the unlimited supply of competing altcoins. However, the key to understanding the stagnation lies in a particular macroeconomic indicator.
Macroeconomics as a Predictor of the Crypto Rally
A new analysis points to the U.S. Manufacturing PMI (ISM) as one of the most reliable indicators of an imminent Altseason. The latest November reading stood at 48.2, missing expectations and confirming contraction in the manufacturing sector. A reading below 50 signals an economic slowdown, and critically, the ISM data explains Altseason by showing that the industrial sector has yet to begin a significant recovery.
The precedents are clear: the altcoin season only emerges when the economy is generally expanding. For example, in both 2017 and 2021, the ISM index was above 55 at the time altcoins began their biggest rallies. This macroeconomic correlation explains why most altcoins continue to struggle despite occasional optimism on social platforms.
Despite the segment’s current weakness, predictions for 2026 include interest rate cuts and an improvement in liquidity. These factors could gradually push the ISM index back into expansion territory.
Meanwhile, the crypto community remains divided. Technical analysts point out that Bitcoin dominance is rejecting its 50-week moving average, a pattern similar to the one observed before the 2021 Altseason.
Analyst Michael van de Poppe suggests that early-month selling might be part of a “final shakeout phase” before a broader rebound, especially for BTC and ETH.
However, the long-term trend for a sustained altcoin takeoff will be inevitably linked to the improvement in macroeconomic liquidity, which the ISM data clearly demonstrates.
