TL;DR
- BTC operates in a tight range with key resistance marked by a supply cluster at $116,000.
- Lack of liquidity and ETF outflows reinforce investors’ defensive stance.
- The sub-$100,000 zone acts as a critical battleground where seller exhaustion is beginning to appear.
The cryptocurrency market is going through a moment of critical indecision. In its most recent report, Glassnode indicates that the pioneer crypto, Bitcoin, is locked in a mild bearish regime with prices oscillating between $97,000 and $111,000.
This Bitcoin consolidation phase has been characterized by a lack of direction and scarce liquidity, leaving investors waiting for a clear macroeconomic catalyst.
However, the report reveals that technical resistance is formidable. There is a “supply cluster of top buyers” near $116,000, while key structural support struggles to hold between $97,500 and $100,000.
Continued outflows from US spot ETFs, low leverage, and persistent demand for put options for protection are external factors painting a picture of extreme caution. Without a decisive return of institutional inflows, the market seems destined to remain in this limbo.
The Battle for the $100,000 Support
It is essential to reclaim the short-term holder cost basis for a sustainable shift toward recovery to occur; it currently sits at $111,900. Now, the zone below $100,000 has emerged as a “critical battleground.”
The Glassnode report notes that much of the selling pressure comes from recent buyers who are capitulating; in fact, when BTC tested $98,000, over 80% of the realized value came from coins sold at a loss, surpassing the intensity of the cycle’s last three major corrections.
However, there is a light at the end of the tunnel within this Bitcoin consolidation phase. Cost distribution heatmaps show that, following capitulation, steady accumulation is occurring by buyers absorbing the supply. This suggests the market is adjusting to a new level of uncertainty without entering total panic.
Nonetheless, until demand is strong enough to absorb the distribution wave in the $106,000 to $118,000 zone, bullish momentum will remain limited.
