TL;RD
- Polymarket is under investigation by Norwegian authorities for suspicious bets placed hours before the announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize winner.
- Multiple traders made around $90,000 USD betting on the winner, Venezuelan María Corina Machado, with unusually high odds.
- The investigation focuses on the possibility of insider trading regarding the committee’s decision.
Polymarket is under scrutiny. Norwegian authorities, who award the Nobel Peace Prize, have launched an investigation into Polymarket over potential information leaks. The inquiry centers on unusual trading activity detected specifically on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket hours before the winner was announced.
This year (2025), Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado was the award recipient. However, in the hours leading up to the official designation, several operators, including a newly created account, placed significant bets in favor of Machado, drastically shifting the odds that had previously favored other contenders, such as Yulia Navalnaya.
Suspicious Winnings and Unusual Patterns
According to the investigation report, at least three different accounts placed considerably high sums, netting around $90,000 USD in winnings. One trader in particular, identified as “6741,” opened a new account to bet on Machado, pocketing approximately $53,500 USD.
This pattern of suspicious activity, where Machado’s odds suddenly spiked on the night before and the morning of the announcement, immediately raised concerns about the potential use of insider information.
A spokesperson for the Nobel Institute clarified to local media that they are “looking into” the matter. This is because the precise information needed to execute these bets could only have come from someone with internal knowledge. In other words, they were privy to the decision of the five-member committee, which was reportedly finalized on October 6.
The investigation into the Polymarket betting platform comes at a crucial time. The platform recently announced an agreement with the Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE), parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, and received approval from the CFTC to re-enter the U.S. market. The resolution of this case will be decisive for the public and regulatory perception of decentralized prediction markets and their ability to operate with integrity while avoiding manipulation based on information leaks.
