TL;DR
- Over $5.76 billion of BTC ($4.91 billion) and ETH ($0.85 billion) options expire this Friday, the largest weekly derivatives drop this month, likely tightening liquidity and heightening volatility.
- Bitcoin’s max pain sits at $114 K (below its $120 K spot), with a 0.78 put-call ratio and widespread risk-reversal strategies, hinting at bullish bets toward $150 K despite a possible short-term pullback.
- Ethereum’s market shows neutrality with a 1.01 put-call ratio, max pain at $2,950 (below its $3,250 spot), and 70% implied volatility, suggesting moderate retracements before a post-expiry rebound.
With the crypto market experiencing a bullish trend, over $5.76 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are scheduled to expire this Friday. With massive open interest and skewed “max pain” price points below current spot levels, traders are positioning for potential price swings and preparing for a post-expiry calm that could reset market dynamics into the weekend.
Record Options Expiry Sets the Stage
Deribit data shows 40,945 BTC contracts with a total notional value of $4.91 billion and 237,466 ETH contracts worth $851 million coming off the board. Combined, these expiring positions represent the largest weekly drip of derivatives capital this month, eclipsing last Friday’s exit of 36,970 BTC and 239,926 ETH contracts. As expiration approaches, liquidity may tighten, and order books could feel sharper price shocks.
Bitcoin Bulls Eye the Skies
Bitcoin’s “max pain” level sits at $114,000, well under its current trading range near $120,000. A put-to-call ratio of 0.78 highlights a positive outlook, indicating that more traders are wagering on price increases. Many have implemented risk reversal plays: selling 30-day puts while buying 30-day calls to express confidence in further gains, yet secure protection against steep drops. Some analysts even forecast BTC surging to $150,000 by Q4, though a pullback into September isn’t ruled out.
Ethereum’s Balanced Bet
Ethereum’s options market paints a more neutral picture. With a put-to-call ratio hovering around 1.01 and max pain at $2,950, below today’s $3,250 spot price, ETH traders remain evenly split. Implied volatility holds near 70%, fueling interest in basis trades and volatility-squeeze strategies. As ETH derivatives approach expiry, these balanced positions could trigger moderate retracements before market sentiment realigns.
Bracing for Volatility Swings
Historically, major options expiries usher in heightened turbulence followed by a steadying phase. This week’s larger notional value means any sudden price moves could be amplified. Traders and institutions alike are fine-tuning hedges, clipping exposures, and eyeing the weekend rebound.
While both BTC and ETH may dip toward their respective max pain zones in the short term, seasoned market participants expect a rebound soon after expiry as fresh liquidity flows and new directional bets emerge.
