TL;DR
- Standard Chartered projects Bitcoin reaching $135,000 in Q3 and $200,000 by December, driven by accelerating ETF and corporate treasury inflows.
- The bank argues that these factors will override any historical post-halving price declines.
- Additionally, potential regulatory developments and favorable political shifts in the U.S. could further fuel upward momentum in the coming months ahead.
Global financial giant Standard Chartered is doubling down on its bullish Bitcoin forecast, predicting the digital asset will climb to $135,000 by the end of the third quarter and surge to $200,000 by December. The firm points to significant demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs and rising interest from corporate treasuries as primary forces behind this anticipated growth.
According to Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, traditional halving cycle dynamics no longer apply.
“Bitcoin is now behaving more like a macro asset, and ETF inflows are shifting its market structure. We believe BTC has moved beyond the previous post-halving correction pattern,” Kendrick explained in detail.
ETF Momentum And Treasury Demand Drive Outlook
Data shows U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $12.4 billion in Q2 alone, equivalent to 120,000 BTC. Meanwhile, companies adding Bitcoin to their treasuries accumulated another 125,000 BTC, bringing the combined Q2 total to 245,000 BTC. Kendrick expects this figure to be surpassed in Q3, driven by growing institutional confidence and a maturing regulatory environment.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have amassed over $48 billion in net inflows since their launch in January 2024. This massive appetite contrasts sharply with the gold market, where ETFs attracted just $6.9 billion in the same timeframe. Kendrick noted that Bitcoin’s positioning as a growth asset, rather than a geopolitical hedge, offers a fresh value proposition to traditional investors worldwide.
Regulatory Shifts And Political Signals Support Growth
Standard Chartered also identifies political and regulatory catalysts that could further boost Bitcoin’s rise. Among them are the likely final approval of a stablecoin law in the U.S. and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates before the end of the year. Both factors are seen as positive for the crypto ecosystem.
Looking ahead, the bank acknowledges possible volatility during the transition from Q3 to Q4 but remains confident that ETF inflows and treasury accumulation will cushion any selling pressure from previous halving trends.
Maintaining its long-term bullish stance, Standard Chartered reiterated its 2028 price target of $500,000 per Bitcoin unit worldwide.
