TL;DR
- Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, claims that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 and hit one million dollars by 2028, driven by U.S. liquidity expansion and pro-crypto policies.
- He also warns of a new altcoin season, but with more moderate returns than in 2021.
- Hayes holds 20% of his portfolio in gold as a hedge against potential U.S. dollar devaluation.
Arthur Hayes has reignited optimism within the crypto space with a bold prediction: Bitcoin could surge to $200,000 by the third quarter of 2025, and potentially hit the $1 million milestone before the decade ends. The former BitMEX CEO and current Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom bases his outlook on a combination of macroeconomic and political dynamics.
According to Hayes, the U.S. government—particularly under Donald Trump presidency—will likely adopt more crypto-friendly policies while increasing spending, thereby injecting massive liquidity into the financial system. He emphasizes that the Treasury is quietly draining the Treasury General Account and issuing substantial new debt, which is boosting dollar supply and indirectly fueling Bitcoin’s price rally.
Recent market movements support this bullish view. Since January, BTC has grown by 9.54%. Although February saw a brief correction that pulled Bitcoin below the $100,000 threshold, the price rebounded in May with a sharp 6.36% single-day increase that finally pushed BTC back above that mark.
Ethereum Holds Strong and Outperforms Solana
While many investors are captivated by the rise of newer blockchains like Solana, Hayes remains firmly bullish on Ethereum. He argues that ETH continues to lead in total value locked (TVL), developer activity, and network security. Over the past 30 days, Ethereum has surged by 48.9%, compared to Solana’s 17.7%.
In his view, Ethereum remains undervalued and will likely outperform Solana over the next 18 to 24 months. He also urges caution in the altcoin space: not all tokens will benefit equally from the upcoming bull run. Hayes advises avoiding projects with low user bases, no revenue, or high fully diluted valuations (FDV).
Gold as Protection Against Currency Risk
Though Hayes is a known crypto advocate, he also emphasizes the importance of diversification. He keeps 20% of his portfolio in gold, citing central bank accumulation and the growing risk of U.S. dollar devaluation. So far in 2025, gold has climbed 22.96%, with notable spikes in April and early May. Hayes forecasts that gold could soar to between $10,000 and $20,000 per ounce in the coming years.
