TL;DR
- The crypto market has shown a steady upward trend, with Bitcoin approaching $88,000 and nearly $900 million in net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.
- K33 analysts warn that April 2nd, Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day”, could bring major volatility depending on his stance on tariffs.
- A softer tone from Trump may push markets higher, while a hardline or vague message could trigger significant drops and short-term turbulence.
The cryptocurrency market has experienced a few weeks of relative calm, marked by moderate growth and positive signals from both the Federal Reserve and the U.S. administration. Bitcoin has risen nearly 5% over the past seven days, reaching levels close to $88,000. Meanwhile, the GMCI 30 index, which tracks the top cryptocurrencies, is up 8.6%, reflecting renewed interest in digital assets. In addition, U.S.-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded eight consecutive days of net inflows, totaling more than $896 million, according to data available.
This optimistic backdrop, however, could soon face a major test due to a key geopolitical event: Donald Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day,” scheduled for April 2. On that date, the current American president is expected to announce a set of reciprocal tariff policies that could directly impact global markets. Analysts from research firm K33 warn that whatever stance Trump takes, conciliatory, aggressive, or unclear, will significantly influence the behavior of crypto assets in the immediate future.
A Threat… or a Golden Opportunity for Crypto?
According to Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman of K33 Research, if Trump softens his rhetoric, both traditional and crypto markets could rally. But if he leans into his usual hardline approach, or delivers a vague, non-committal message, traders could face a spike in volatility, similar to the market reactions during previous trade war announcements. Historically, such events, while unsettling in the short term, have positioned Bitcoin as a safe haven asset in times of economic and political uncertainty.
The current low leverage and reduced trading volume suggest that market participants are in a wait-and-see mode, holding back until there’s more clarity on the political front. Yet this pause may represent a unique opportunity: if Trump’s announcements disrupt traditional markets, crypto could emerge as the go-to alternative for investors seeking stability.
As Wall Street braces for a potential shake-up, the crypto ecosystem may be rapidly approaching a significant turning point. April 2 won’t just test Bitcoin’s resilience, it could also mark a critical moment for crypto to prove its lasting relevance in the face of growing geopolitical and economic tension.
