TL;DR
- MicroStrategy has a 91% chance of joining the S&P 500 by the end of Q2, as long as Bitcoin stays above $95,240.
- This would mark a major achievement for crypto-aligned firms entering mainstream financial indices.
- The company’s eligibility hinges on new accounting rules that let unrealized Bitcoin gains boost reported earnings, aligning traditional finance with digital assets in a pivotal moment for institutional crypto adoption.
MicroStrategy, the business intelligence firm led by Michael Saylor, is on the verge of a major breakthrough: inclusion in the S&P 500. According to financial analyst Jeff Walton, there’s a 91% probability that the company will qualify by the end of the second quarter, provided Bitcoin doesn’t dip more than 10% before June 30. As of now, Bitcoin trades at around $106,200, leaving a modest buffer before breaching the $95,240 threshold that could derail the opportunity.
Bitcoin’s Role In Unlocking Institutional Recognition
MicroStrategy holds over 592,000 BTC, the most of any public company. Thanks to a new accounting rule (ASU 2023-08), those holdings are now revalued quarterly at market prices. That means price appreciation in Bitcoin directly improves MicroStrategy’s reported income. This shift aligns legacy accounting practices with digital asset realities, and it’s giving Strategy the earnings bump it needs for S&P 500 inclusion. Walton explains that the firm needs total positive earnings over the past four quarters, despite having posted net losses in the last three. With Bitcoin trading above the key threshold, the current quarter could tip the balance.
Statistically, things look promising. Out of more than 3,900 six-day periods since September 2014, only 8.7% have seen a drop larger than 10%. As time shrinks, the odds improve, falling to just 2.4% on the final day. These numbers offer real-time insight into Bitcoin’s evolving stability in high-stakes financial scenarios, and how volatility is gradually declining with wider adoption.
A New Milestone For Crypto-Aligned Public Firms
If successful, MicroStrategy would be the second crypto-involved firm to join the S&P 500 in 2025, following Coinbase’s entry earlier this year. It’s more than just symbolic. With MicroStrategy already included in the Nasdaq-100 Index since December 2024, its trajectory signals rising acceptance of digital asset exposure in corporate portfolios.
While market volatility always looms, current conditions favor MicroStrategy’s path to the index. If Bitcoin holds the line, Wall Street will soon welcome one of its most Bitcoin-heavy firms into its core benchmark, bringing crypto exposure further into the financial mainstream and challenging outdated views on digital asset risk and corporate treasury strategy.
