TL;DR
- Arthur Hayes shifts focus from trading to decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid.
- He predicts HYPE could reach $150 by August 2026, a fivefold increase.
- The platform burns 97% of revenue, reducing supply and supporting price.
The crypto market still reflects caution. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in the “Extreme Fear” zone, a level that usually signals hesitation among traders. Many participants watch short-term price moves and avoid exposure while volatility stays high.
However, some experienced figures read the same data in a different way. Among them is Arthur Hayes, who believes current conditions may hide opportunities in another segment of the market.
Hayes recently pointed attention toward decentralized exchanges rather than short-term trading bets. In his view, platforms that collect fees from trading activity can continue to generate income even when prices move sideways. This approach looks beyond daily fluctuations. Instead, it examines how much value a protocol produces through real use.
Hayes sees $150 potential for HYPE
The token at the center of his analysis is HYPE, the native asset of the Hyperliquid platform. Hayes believes the token could reach $150 by August 2026, a level about five times higher than its value near $30 at the time of his writing.
His reasoning rests on the platform’s revenue structure. While firms such as Tether and Circle keep most profits within their companies, Hyperliquid uses a different approach. Roughly 97% of the protocol’s revenue is used to buy back and burn HYPE tokens. This process reduces the circulating supply and can support price levels if demand remains steady.
Hayes compared the situation with earlier market cycles. During the sideways market of 2023, decentralized trading platforms such as GMX continued to generate revenue from fees while many traders struggled to find profitable positions. That experience forms the base of his current thesis.
Revenue growth remains the key condition
Even with this structure, Hayes acknowledges that strong revenue growth is required. Hyperliquid currently generates around $843 million in annualized revenue. For the $150 price target to appear justified, that figure would need to rise to roughly $1.4 billion per year.
One possible driver is HIP-3, a feature that allows users to create permissionless perpetual markets tied to traditional assets. Traders can design markets connected to instruments such as the Nasdaq-100 or precious metals, all directly on-chain.
Launching these markets requires staking 500,000 HYPE tokens, which creates additional demand for the asset.
Although the feature is still new, HIP-3 already accounts for about 10% of Hyperliquid’s revenue. If more traders decide to hedge traditional assets on-chain, this share could expand further. In simple terms, each new market acts like another engine producing trading fees.
Market participants show support for the thesis
Hayes’ view has also gained attention on social media. Several users on X expressed agreement with his analysis and repeated the argument that decentralized exchanges could attract more trading activity over time. In these discussions, traders often point to the protocol’s fee model and token burn system as the core drivers.
Another metric cited by Hayes is the ADV/OI ratio, which compares average daily trading volume with open interest. According to his analysis, Hyperliquid shows the lowest ratio among the top five perpetual decentralized exchanges. Hayes interprets this as a signal that the platform’s trading volume may be more genuine and less influenced by artificial activity.
He also argues that the protocol’s share of visible trading volume could grow gradually as adoption spreads. If this occurs, total fee income would likely increase as well.
Price movement and on-chain data
At the time of reporting, HYPE traded near $34.98, showing a 13.37% gain over the previous 24 hours. The rise occurred while broader market sentiment remained cautious.
Data from Santiment highlights an earlier gap between development progress and investor perception. From mid-January to mid-February, developer activity on the protocol increased while market sentiment stayed negative. Many traders were watching short-term price swings rather than the underlying growth of the platform.
Hayes has supported HYPE for months
This is not the first time Hayes has expressed confidence in the token. On February 21, he wrote on X that he was accumulating HYPE and targeting the $150 level. His earlier estimate suggested the price could reach that level by July 2026, though his latest projection moves the timeline slightly later, to August 2026.
Hyperliquid must expand its trading activity enough to reach about $1.4 billion in yearly revenue. Without that growth, the valuation behind the target price would be difficult to maintain.
Yet Hayes’ argument points to a different indicator. While many traders watch price charts, the protocol’s revenue engine continues to run in the background—quietly building the numbers that could decide whether his forecast becomes reality.
