TL;DR
- Ethereum has gained about 31% in seven days, reviving expectations of a broader altcoin rotation. Yet BlockchainCenter’s index remains at 43, below the 75 threshold needed for altseason.
- Bitcoin still controls more than 59% of total market value, showing that capital has not fully rotated.
- Arthur Hayes believes ETH could lead the next leg higher if it breaks $3,000.
Ethereum’s latest rally is putting altcoins back on traders’ radar, but the market has not yet reached the broad participation required for a confirmed altcoin season. ETH has gained roughly 31% in seven days to about $2,495, while Bitcoin has also advanced strongly, keeping capital rotation incomplete.
The altcoin market has entered a state of optimism.
85% of alts reached funding rates above their mean.
This is the highest print we've seen for this metric since BTC was trading at all time highs.
In an alt season, these conditions can last for many weeks. pic.twitter.com/p9j2xNKIGJ
— glassnode (@glassnode) August 24, 2026
The Rally Has Momentum, But Breadth Remains Limited
ETH’s recent move stands out, yet it is not alone. XRP has risen about 49% over the same seven-day period, while Zcash has gained roughly 64%, showing that selective altcoin strength is already appearing. Bitcoin, however, remains dominant with more than 59% of total crypto market value, compared with roughly 11.4% for Ethereum.
That distinction matters because an altcoin season requires more than a handful of large tokens outperforming. CoinMarketCap defines the period as a phase when at least 75% of the top 100 cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin over 90 days. BlockchainCenter applies a similar threshold to the top 50 assets. Its current index stands at 43, well below the 75-point level required for altseason.
Still, market conditions are becoming more constructive. Glassnode said on August 24 that 85% of altcoins had funding rates above their mean, describing the reading as the highest for that metric since Bitcoin reached all-time highs. The firm added that such conditions can persist for weeks during an altcoin season.
Arthur Hayes Sees Ethereum As The Catalyst
Arthur Hayes is taking the bullish view further. In an interview with Laura Shin, the BitMEX co-founder said ETH is his largest crypto position outside Bitcoin and argued that its failure to reclaim its 2021 high leaves significant room for catch-up growth. Hayes expects a break above $3,000 could push ETH toward $5,000.
Hayes has also argued that Ethereum could outperform major assets during a liquidity-driven recovery and help reduce Bitcoin dominance toward 40%. That scenario would fit the traditional rotation pattern in which Bitcoin strengthens first, Ethereum gains momentum next, and capital then spreads across smaller tokens.
For now, the strongest evidence points to an early-stage rotation rather than a full altcoin season. ETH’s acceleration is encouraging for bulls, particularly as derivatives positioning improves, but the breadth indicators remain below confirmation levels.
