{"id":172820,"date":"2024-10-09T12:16:52","date_gmt":"2024-10-09T12:16:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crypto-economy.com\/?p=172820"},"modified":"2024-10-09T12:16:56","modified_gmt":"2024-10-09T12:16:56","slug":"bitcoin-short-term-holders-show-strength-but-futures-volatility-looms-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crypto-economy.com\/bitcoin-short-term-holders-show-strength-but-futures-volatility-looms-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Show Strength, But Futures Volatility Looms Ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">TL;DR<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify\">\n<li><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Market Resilience<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">: After a 10% correction, Bitcoin rebounded to $63,000, reclaiming the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis of $62,500, showing market resilience despite lighter trading volumes.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Key Pricing Levels<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">: The spot price remains above the True-Market Mean ($47,000) and Active Investor Price ($52,500), indicating strong demand support, but small fluctuations can significantly impact profitability.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Futures Volatility<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">: Increasing speculative interest in the futures market, with a recent $2.5 billion in open interest closed, suggests potential volatility ahead, requiring cautious monitoring of key pricing levels.<\/span><\/span><br \/>\n<hr \/>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Following a significant 10% price correction, the <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/crypto-economy.com\/what-is-bitcoin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Bitcoin <\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">market has rebounded to the $63,000 level<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, attempting to reclaim the critical Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis. <\/span><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">This recovery comes after one of the deepest one-day sell-offs since the 2022 cycle low<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, highlighting the market\u2019s resilience despite lighter weekend trading volumes, <\/span><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">according to Glassnode&#8217;s latest <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/insights.glassnode.com\/the-week-onchain-week-41-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">report<\/span><\/a><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.<\/span><!--more--><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: left\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Bitcoin&#8217;s Short-Term Holders Influence on Market Dynamics<\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Short-term holders<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, typically new market entrants, <\/span><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">play a crucial role in defining local price action.<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> The spot price has recently accelerated above and reclaimed the STH cost-basis of $62,500, indicating a constructive market sentiment. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">However, failure to maintain this level could put recent buyers under pressure, especially given the challenging conditions of the past few months.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: left\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Macro Outlook and Key Pricing Levels<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-172822\" src=\"https:\/\/crypto-economy.com\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/BitcoinShortTerm.jpg\" alt=\"Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Show Strength, But Futures Volatility Looms Ahead\" width=\"825\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/crypto-economy.com\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/BitcoinShortTerm.jpg 825w, https:\/\/crypto-economy.com\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/BitcoinShortTerm-300x109.jpg 300w, https:\/\/crypto-economy.com\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/BitcoinShortTerm-768x279.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 825px) 100vw, 825px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">On a broader scale, <\/span><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">the True <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/crypto-economy.com\/what-are-cryptocurrencies-and-which-are-the-best-to-invest-in\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Cryptocurrency<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> Market Mean ($47,000) and the Active Investor Price ($52,500)<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> provide insights into the average cost basis for active investors. <\/span><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The spot price has remained above these levels<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> for most of the year, suggesting a robust market with strong demand support during drawdowns. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The URPD metric further indicates that small price fluctuations can significantly impact investor profitability, given the large cluster of coins at the current price level.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: left\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Futures Market Speculation and Volatility<\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Despite a reduction in long-biased speculation, the futures market shows signs of increasing speculative interest. The directional premium has recently exceeded its +1\u03c3 band, indicating a potential return of speculative activity. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">A substantial $2.5 billion in futures open interest was closed during the recent rally, suggesting a flushing out of short sellers. However, <\/span><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">the market remains susceptible to heightened volatility<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, which could lead to significant price swings due to deleveraging pressures and liquidations.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Bitcoin market\u2019s near-term future hinges on maintaining the STH cost basis. While Short-Term Holders have shown strength, <\/span><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">the increasing speculation in futures markets points to potential volatility ahead<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The report also indicates a decline in speculative activity within the derivatives market.<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> The weekly cost of leverage for long positions, which reached a peak of $120 million during Bitcoin\u2019s all-time high in March, has now fallen to just $15.3 million.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>TL;DR Market Resilience: After a 10% correction, Bitcoin rebounded to $63,000, reclaiming the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis of $62,500, showing market resilience despite lighter trading volumes. Key Pricing Levels: The spot price remains above the True-Market Mean ($47,000) and Active Investor Price ($52,500), indicating strong demand support, but small fluctuations can significantly impact profitability. &#8230; <\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more-container\"><a title=\"Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Show Strength, But Futures Volatility Looms Ahead\" class=\"read-more button\" href=\"https:\/\/crypto-economy.com\/bitcoin-short-term-holders-show-strength-but-futures-volatility-looms-ahead\/#more-172820\" aria-label=\"More on Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Show Strength, But Futures Volatility Looms Ahead\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":32,"featured_media":172821,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[100,70,9156],"tags":[4602,5536,5463],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crypto-economy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172820"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crypto-economy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crypto-economy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crypto-economy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/32"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crypto-economy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=172820"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/crypto-economy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172820\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":172823,"href":"https:\/\/crypto-economy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172820\/revisions\/172823"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crypto-economy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/172821"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crypto-economy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=172820"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crypto-economy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=172820"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crypto-economy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=172820"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}